Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Electric Car Maker Tesla Fails to Dazzle Investors, Stock Gets Hammered

Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported third quarter 2013 earnings after markets closed on Tuesday. For the quarter, the electric car maker posted adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.12 on adjusted revenues of $603 million. In the same period a year ago, the company reported an adjusted EPS loss of $0.92 on revenues of $50.1 million. Third-quarter results compare to the Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for EPS of $0.11 and $534.64 million in revenues.

On a GAAP basis, the carmaker lost $0.32 per share, compared with a year-ago quarterly loss of $1.05. The significant one-time items included in the GAAP loss were $0.16 a share in stock based compensation and $0.21 for deferred profit due to lease accounting.

The carmaker boosted production by 10%, from 500 to 550 vehicles a week and delivered over 5,500 vehicles in the quarter, including more than 1,000 to European customers.

Tesla would have had to absolutely blow the doors off estimates for the quarter to have been called a success, and that did not happen. The anticipation bordered on the insane. Monday options trading included a weekly call option that expires Friday at a $230 share price. The stock closed at $175.20 on Monday night and is now headed for $150. I mean, really?

In its outlook, Tesla said it expects to ship about 21,500 Model S sedans in 2013, with just under 6,000 units shipped in the fourth quarter.

Gross margin is expected to be in 25% for the fourth quarter without the benefit of the zero-emission credits, a target the company set at the end of the second quarter. The company also noted that it expects to be equally profitable in the fourth quarter as it was in the third on a non-GAAP basis and to be "close to breakeven" on free cash flow.

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The company's shares are being punished in after-hours trading on Tuesday, down nearly 11% at $158.25 in a 52-week range of $29.85 to $194.50. The consensus target price for the shares was around $170 before today's report, with some wide variation. BofA, for example, had a price target of just $45 based on 2015 expected enterprise value versus EBITDA of about 12 times.

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