Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Is This Fast-Food Giant Feeling the Squeeze?

McDonald's (NYSE: MCD  ) is one of the most iconic brands in the world, serving 69 million customers every day at over 34,000 restaurants located in 116 countries. The company has paid (and raised) a dividend every year since 1976, and began offering quarterly dividends in 2008. With the company playing up the across-the-board increases in its most recent earnings report, you might think that it's on pretty solid ground. That is, of course, unless you've been keeping up with the headlines.

Trouble under the golden arches
McDonald's has been making the news lately, and not all of the news is good. In addition to upsetting some of its franchisees with high franchise fees and dealing with striking workers seeking higher wages, the company also recently topped a list compiled by 24/7 Wall St. of fast-food chains that are costing taxpayers the most money through government programs that workers need to make ends meet.

All of this negative media attention comes at a bad time for the company as it struggles to maintain its growth. Despite the company's claims of a "solid third quarter," the quarter that ended on Sep. 30 showed relatively lackluster growth. Global comparable-store sales grew only 0.9%, and the company's diluted earnings per share of $1.52 came in only $0.01 over estimates. While growth is always better than a loss, such small levels of growth for one of the world's most recognizable brands certainly isn't much to brag about.

Changes not enough to elevate demand
For over a year now, McDonald's has focused on incorporating limited-time offerings into its menu as a way to draw in customers. While this initiative started off strong with the popular "Chicken McBites," more recent offerings have failed to bring in customers like the company hoped.

In good company
McDonald's isn't the only fast-food company that's feeling the pinch at the moment. Burger King Worldwide (NYSE: BKW  ) , Wendy's, and Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM  ) (parent of Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and KFC) have all had their share of downward pressure in recent quarters.

Yum! in particular has been fighting this pressure, especially in China, where the company has been building a significant presence with 6,000 restaurants in 850 cities. Continued pressure from Chinese bird flu worries dragged same-store sales within the country down 11%, while domestic sales remained largely flat. Overall, the company saw a 15% decline in earnings per share to $0.85 per share excluding special items (or $0.33 with those items included.)

Burger King has also been under pressure as of late, experiencing a 40% year-over-year decline in revenue in its most recent quarter. This decline was expected as part of the refranchising of the company, however, and the company's $275 million in sales still beat analyst estimates by a cool $10 million. Adjusted diluted earnings per share for the quarter came in at $0.23, again beating estimates by $0.02 and showing an improvement of 32% year-over-year.

The future of fast food
The fast-food market is quickly reaching a saturation point domestically, so most companies in the sector are looking to emerging economies for growth. Yum! has been particularly aggressive in this regard, expanding quickly in China with its strongest chains. Even with its declines, China still provided 60% of the company's quarterly revenue. The company is trying to rebound in the country through initiatives that aren't found in the U.S. such as its Pizza Hut Home Service, East Dawning restaurants that combine the KFC model with traditional Chinese cuisine, and Little Sheep Mongolian hot pot restaurants (which were the expense behind the special items in the third quarter's EPS.)

Burger King is taking a different approach to the growth issue by refranchising its stores. By converting company-owned assets to franchised locations, the company is seeing massive cost savings without causing an impact on sales; while the refranchising contributed to the company's revenue decline, it has helped the company to drop expenses from $216.3 million to an impressive $22.9 million. These cost savings, along with expansion plans in developing economies, should help the company to grow its earnings in the future.

As for McDonald's, one problem with being in the no. 1 position is that it can be difficult to continue growing. The company is continuing its limited-time offerings and testing new initiatives such as a late-night menu and upcoming changes to its famous Dollar Menu (including the addition of new items at multiple price points.) It's unlikely that any of these initiatives will fuel significant growth, however, as the draw that they bring will only be temporary. That may be enough for the company, though, since it still remains a decent dividend play. So long as the lackluster growth doesn't turn into a full decline, it should be able to maintain its "dividend aristocrat" status into the future.

Two of the companies in this report are fast-food restaurants
Profiting from our increasingly global economy can be as easy as investing in your own backyard. The Motley Fool's free report "3 American Companies Set to Dominate the World" shows you how. Click here to get your free copy before it's gone.

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Obamacare: Do Not Pass Go, Do Not Collect Health Insurance?

Can you hear me now? Apparently, the answer is "no"!

The hits just kept on coming for Obamacare's cloud-based, federally run health exchange this weekend. This time a networking problem at a Verizon (NYSE: VZ  ) subsidiary, Terremark, knocked out a key data services hub offline and severed the connection between Healthcare.gov and government agencies like the IRS that help determine citizenship and subsidies for consumers. In other words, even if you could access the online health insurance marketplace covering 36 states, you would have had no clue to your eligibility for certain subsidies because of this hardware glitch.

Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius. Source: United States Mission Geneva, Flickr.

This downtime, which lasted well into Monday morning, is a particularly damaging hit to Obamacare supporters' pride because (1) Verizon was reported last week to be the potential "new kid on the block" to help solve the federally run health exchange's problems, and now its subsidiary is the reason behind this weekend's shutdown; and (2) Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius told the media on Saturday that the data services hub was one of the few pieces of the rollout that was functioning properly. Talk about a "bang your head against the wall" moment.

However, that wasn't the end of it. The outage, which came during scheduled maintenance for another unidentified issue, also took down the 14 state-run exchanges because they access the same government agencies in determining whether a consumer is eligible for a subsidy.

The chance card
Despite a cornucopia of problems plaguing Healthcare.gov, we finally got our first concrete glimpse last week of who's in charge and how long a permanent fix will take.

Jeffrey Zients, the former acting Office of Budget and Management chief who was tagged to lead the Healthcare.gov repair, indicated that UnitedHealth Group  (NYSE: UNH  ) subsidiary Quality Software Services, or QSSI, is now in charge of the technical aspects of the website. We also learned that by the end of November the website should be working smoothly for a majority of people. In another context, that's just one month and two days away now!

The big question, following this weekend's unplanned outage, is whether the federal health exchange can be fixed quickly enough to give those who want health insurance a chance to get it before the coverage cutoff date arrives. That date was recently pushed back to March 31, 2014.

Speaking from an opinionative perspective, and taking into account the precedent of the Medicare Part D rollout, fixing a system that many pundits have called incredibly flawed from an architectural standpoint in just five weeks might be a bit optimistic. Medicare Part D had seemingly far fewer problems, and they were confined to just a few states. Sure, the scope of Healthcare.gov and cloud computing didn't exist back then, so it's like trying to compare an apple to an orange, but the magnitude of problems being uncovered gives me the impression that this is going to be a difficult deadline to meet.

On the flip side, though, the precedent from Massachusetts' health reform overhaul in 2006 demonstrates that we're creatures of procrastination and we're going to wait until the last possible moment to register and pay for our health insurance. So even if the government and Healthcare.gov take another walk of shame for failing to meet the original 35-day deadline , it's unlikely to affect enrollment figures dramatically if the site isn't up and running smoothly by the end of November.

Advance 12 spaces
As these glitches wear on, it's becoming apparent that only one group of stocks is really coming out of this mess with their heads held high: private market insurance platforms.

It's been a banner year for private-platform health insurers, as some very large enterprises including Walgreen, IBM, Time Warner, and Home Depot have shifted at least some of their employee base to a privatized exchange. The two names here that should benefit are Aon (NYSE: AON  ) , which runs the Aon Hewitt Corporate Health Exchange and had landed 18 clients with 5,000 or more employees as of last month, and Xerox (NYSE: XRX  ) , whose subsidiary Buck Consultants built RightOpt, an employer-based privatized exchange aimed primarily at retirees who are getting the boot from their corporate health benefits plan.

The move is simple in the eyes of employers: remove employees from corporate plans to reduce expenses and give them an annual subsidy to absolve the company of its obligation to provide health insurance to those employees/retirees. This gives the employees potentially more encompassing health insurance choices than they had under their original corporate health plan. As more companies explore this option, the success of Aon and Xerox's networks could set the precedent that weakens the need for Obamacare's individual health exchanges.

The other option here is eHealth (NASDAQ: EHTH  )  a private health insurance platform for individuals, families, and small businesses that's been around for years. In its third-quarter results released last week, eHealth noted that membership had risen by 24% to 1.147 million from the year-ago period, clearly showing skepticism in the Obamacare health reform law suggesting the success and options its private platform offers. If there's any company that can use Healthcare.gov's nightmarish start to its advantage, it's eHealth!

Do not pass go
In the meantime, it looks like more of the hurry-up-and-wait game is in order for potential health insurance enrollees in the 36 state marketplaces run by Healthcare.gov.

Still unsure how Obamacare will affect you and your portfolio? Let us help!
Obamacare seems complex, but it doesn't have to be. In only minutes, you can learn the critical facts you need to know in a special free report called Everything You Need to Know About Obamacare. But don't hesitate; because it's not often that we release a FREE guide containing this much information and money-making advice. Please click here to access your free copy.

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Will Microsoft Continue This Bullish Run?

With shares of Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) trading around $35, is MSFT an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Microsoft is engaged in developing, licensing, and supporting a wide range of software products and services. The company also designs and sells hardware and delivers online advertising to customers. It operates in five segments: Windows and Windows Live, Server and Tools, Online Services Division, Microsoft Business Division, and Entertainment and Devices. As a mature company, Microsoft is also offering a stable dividend, which is currently yielding around 3.32 percent annually.

Microsoft reported that earnings in the third quarter rose 17 percent from the year ago period, wildly beating out analyst expectations and causing a flurry of after-hours trading in the company's shares. Steve Ballmer, the CEO of Microsoft, said that he is happy that there is a lot of consumer excitement over products such as the Xbox 1 and Surface 2, which could help boost the company's sales looking ahead to the holiday season. The company's stock has risen about 6 percent before the opening bell.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

Microsoft stock has seen its fair share of volatility in the last couple of years. The stock is currently trading near the high end of its yearly range and looks set to continue. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Microsoft is trading above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

MSFT

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Microsoft options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Microsoft Options

21.64%

0%

0%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very small amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

November Options

Flat

Average

December Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Microsoft’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Microsoft look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q3

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

-3.08%

11.94%

20.00%

-2.56%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

7.36%

10.17%

17.71%

2.78%

Earnings Reaction

6.46%*

-10.85%

3.36%

0.90%

Microsoft has seen mixed earnings and rising revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been optimistic about Microsoft’s recent earnings announcements.

* As of this writing

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Microsoft stock done relative to its peers, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), and sector?

Microsoft

Apple

Oracle

Google

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

34.82%

-0.35%

-0.29%

44.40%

20.64%

Microsoft has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Microsoft is a technology company that provides valuable software products and services to consumers and companies worldwide. A recent earnings report has investors buzzing about the company. The stock has been moving higher in recent years and is now trading near highs for the year. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been mixed while revenues have been rising which has left investors optimistic about the company. Relative to its peers and sector, Microsoft has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for Microsoft to OUTPERFORM.

Friday, October 25, 2013

What Are Frontier Markets?

10 Best Low Price Stocks To Watch Right Now

Frontier markets refer to equity markets in small nations that are at an earlier stage of economic and political development than larger and more mature emerging markets. In other words, think of frontier markets as the smaller siblings of emerging markets. Frontier equity markets typically have modest market capitalization, limited investability and liquidity, and few market information sources. On the positive side, they generally possess favorable demographics and good long-term growth prospects. As these markets probably constitute the last frontier of investing in an increasingly interlinked global economy, investors should be aware of their risks and rewards, and the options available to invest in them.

Characteristics of Frontier Markets

The term "frontier markets" is widely attributed to the International Finance Corporation (IFC), which coined it in 1992 to refer to a subset of emerging markets. Standard & Poor's bought the IFC Emerging Markets Database in 2000 and subsequently established a frontier index in 2007.

As of September 2013, frontier indices had been established by four major providers – Standard & Poor's, MSCI, Russell Investments and FTSE. The number of frontier markets in these indices ranges from 25 in the MSCI index to 41 in the Russell Frontier Index. These frontier markets are generally concentrated in Eastern Europe, Africa, the Middle East, South America and Asia. The biggest frontier markets are Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Nigeria, Argentina and Kazakhstan.

The criteria for inclusion in a frontier markets index are not rigid. The starting point in evaluating a nation for inclusion, of course, is that it should not already be a component of one of the numerous emerging market or developed market indices. Assuming that a nation is not, most index providers evaluate para! meters such as its economic development, market accessibility, liquidity and foreign investment restrictions. Overseas investor interest is also considered, since there is no point in going to the effort and expense of including a nation in a frontier markets index if there is little interest in it as an investment destination.

Emerging to Frontier (and Vice Versa)

The subjectivity involved in classifying a market as a "frontier," rather than an emerging, market means that there are occasional inconsistencies in classification among the different index providers. For example, Pakistan is classified as a frontier market by S&P, MSCI and Russell, but is regarded as an emerging market by FTSE.

There is also some degree of migration between the frontier and emerging markets as their economic fortunes change. As an example, in 2009 MSCI re-classified the status of three countries from emerging market to frontier market – Jordan, Pakistan and Argentina. Morocco will be moved from the list of emerging markets to frontier markets in November 2013.

Movement from the ranks of frontier markets to emerging markets is also possible, as evidenced by the fact that Qatar and UAE will be making this transition in May 2014.

Sector Similarities, Economic Disparities

The biggest sector in any frontier market index by far is banking/financials, which generally accounts for more than 50% of the index. Other sectors with double-digit weights are industrials and telecoms. Sectors such as health care, utilities and consumer discretionary – which form a substantial portion of the benchmark index in bigger economies – typically have minimal representation in frontier market indices.

Despite the large number of Middle East nations and OPEC producers included in frontier markets, energy companies do not find much representation in these indices. This is because most of the big oil and gas companies in these nations are sovereign entities that are largely or wholly owned! by the g! overnment, so they are not open to investment by the general public.

Another point worth noting is that since frontier markets include a number of prosperous nations, there is a great deal of disparity between the constituents of a frontier index. As an example, Qatar, with its huge energy reserves and rapid growth rate in recent years, had per-capita gross national income of $81,300 and a population of less than 2 million in 2011, according to the World Bank. In comparison, Bangladesh had per-capita income of $1,910 and a population of 153 million in 2011.

Comparing Frontier Market Indices

Here's a basic comparison of the four main frontier market indices (as of September 2013):

S&P Frontier BMI (Broad Market Index) Number of countries – 36

Number of companies – 556

Top five countries – Kuwait, Qatar, Nigeria, UAE, Argentina

Top three sectors – Financials (53.9%), industrials, consumer staples

MSCI Frontier Markets Index Number of countries – 25

Number of companies – 141

Top five countries – Kuwait, Qatar, Nigeria, UAE, Pakistan

Top three sectors – Financials (53.1%), telecom services, industrials

FTSE Frontier 50 Index Number of countries – 26

Number of companies – 50

Top five countries – Qatar, Nigeria, Argentina, Kenya, Oman

Top three sectors – Banks (51%), industrials, telecom

Russell Frontier Index Number of countries – 41

Number of companies – Not known

Top five countries – Kuwait, Nigeria, Qatar, Argentina, Pakistan

Top three sectors – Financial services, energy, utilities

Why Frontier Markets are Important

Frontier markets are worthy of considering for a number of reasons:

Growth potential due to demographics: While frontier market economies have a combined population of 2 billion people – or about 30% of the global population – they account for only 6% of the world's nominal GDP and just 0.4% of global market capitalization. The population of those living in frontier markets is relatively young, with 60% under 30 years of age and an average age of 30.2 years, a decade less than the 40.5 average age of the 1 billion living in developed nations. Labor costs in most frontier markets are also low compared with costs in other nations. This demographic advantage, combined with a debt-to-GDP that is much lower than in the developed world, means that frontier markets have better long-term growth prospects. In 2011, for instance, frontier markets posted an average GDP growth rate of 4.9%, three times faster than the 1.6% growth rate recorded by the 10 largest advanced economies, according to the World Bank. Frontier markets may improve portfolio diversification: While increasing global economy integration means that most developed and emerging markets move in sync with one another, frontier markets have a lower degree of correlation with them. As a result, frontier markets may be effective in improving a portfolio's diversification. Above-average returns: As of Sept. 25, 2013, eight of the 10 best-performing equity markets for the year were frontier markets, with an average gain of 41.5% in U.S.-dollar terms. While these are not typical returns, as they can gyrate wildly from one year to the next, a patient investor with a long-term investment horizon may be able to generate significant returns from frontier markets over time. How to Invest in Frontier Markets

Exchange traded funds (ETFs) offer by far the best way to invest in frontier markets. A summary of some of the leading ETFs follows (data as of Sept. 27, 2013):

iShares MSCI Frontier 100 (NYSE:FM): Tracks the MSCI Frontier Markets 100 Index. Top geographic allocations – Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Nigeria and Pakistan

Top sector allocations – Banks, telecoms, oil and gas, real estate

Total assets = US$301 million

Guggenheim Frontier Markets (NYSE:FRN): Seeks investment results that correspond to the price and yield performance of the Bank of New York Mellon New Frontier DR Index. This index, in turn, tracks the performance of depositary receipts in ADR or GDR form for companies from countries defined as the frontier market in the LSE, NYSE, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq. Top geographic allocations – Chile, Colombia, Argentina, Egypt and Nigeria

Top sector allocations – Banks, oil and gas, electric utilities, food

Total assets = US$94 million.

PowerShares MENA Frontier Countries Portfolio (Nasdaq:PMNA): Seeks investment results that correspond to performance of the Nasdaq OMX Middle East North Africa (MENA) index. Top geographic allocations – Kuwait, UAE, Egypt, Qatar and Bahrain

Top sector allocations – Banks, real estate, telecoms, venture capital

Total assets = US$14 million.

Risks of Frontier Markets

Liquidity – Liquidity can be an issue for most markets during turbulent times, and especially for frontier markets due to their thin trading volumes. This lack of volume may result in limited liquidity and wide bid-ask spreads in volatile markets. Geopolitical and political risks – Many frontier markets are located in unstable areas, and as a result, geopolitical risk is a real concern. Political change is another issue that should be considered, since a change of government may be accompanied by significant unrest and instability. Inflation – This is a constant threat in some frontier markets, and it may erode investment returns substantially over the long term. Lack of transparency – Most frontier markets suffer from a lack of transparency and have inadequate information sources. Currency risk – The steep decline in some emerging market currencies like the Indian rupee in 2013 highlights the risk posed by investing overseas. While currency risk is a definite issue for frontier markets, it is less so for the Middle East nations such as Qatar and the UAE that peg their local currencies to the U.S. dollar. Conclusion

Despite their obvious risks, frontier markets offer investors the advantages of above-average returns driven by favorable demographics, as well as portfolio diversification. As these markets probably constitute the last frontier of investing in an increasingly interlinked global economy, investors should be aware of their risks and rewards, and the options available to invest in them.

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Top Growth Companies To Watch In Right Now

General Electric (GE) is living out its old motto, “We Bring Good Things to Light,” at least for investors.

David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

GE’s shares are heading higher today after blue-chip conglomerate reported earnings of 40 cents a share, ahead of forecasts for a 35 cent profit. Profits fell 8.6% during the quarter, but that was largely due to weaker financial revenue–an area that GE has been trying to reduce its exposure too (also the businesses that helped GE beat earnings over and over again during the 2000s).

These earnings were all about GE’s industrial lines. Citigroup’s Deane Dray explains:

The Industrials-driven beat, high quality of earnings absorbing more restructuring, impressive order growth, and reaffirmation of the 2013 earnings framework should drive a low to mid single-digit positive reaction in GE shares on Oct-18. Skepticism of the 70 bps Industrial margin expansion target was rampant into earnings and the +120 bps in 3Q and reaffirmation of the 2013 target is a positive surprise.

Top Growth Companies To Watch In Right Now: Buffalo Wild Wings Inc.(BWLD)

Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc. engages in the ownership, operation, and franchise of restaurants in the United States. The company provides quick casual and casual dining services, as well as serves bottled beers, wines, and liquor. As of July 26, 2011, it had 773 Buffalo Wild Wings locations in 45 states in the United States, as well as in Canada. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Michael Ugulini]

    Craft Brew Alliance and Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) are working together on a new beer brew called Game Changer. The company's Redhook has partnered with BWLD.

  • [By Andrew Marder]

    I've come to loathe precedents. Nothing is more annoying than someone telling you that their favorite new book is the next Harry Potter�or that the movie they just saw is going to be the next Godfather. So it shouldn't be a surprise that I'm not overly keen on the selling of Noodles & Company (NASDAQ: NDLS  ) as the next Panera (NASDAQ: PNRA  ) or Chipotle (NYSE: CMG  ) or Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ: BWLD  ) . Instead, maybe we can judge the business on its merits, instead of on the success of restaurants that came before it.

  • [By Chris Katje]

    Redhook and Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) will launch Game Changer Ale in July, as part of a new alcohol menu at all of the restaurant chain's locations. Buffalo Wild Wings CEO Sally Smith had this to say, "Draft beer is another cornerstone of our brand. We continue to create new opportunities to enhance the draft beer experience for our guests, increase our beer sales and improve our draft beer margins."

  • [By Jon C. Ogg]

    Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (NASDAQ: BWLD) was downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James.

    Cepheid (NASDAQ: CPHD) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, but the firm actually raised its price target to $41 (versus a $39.04 close).

Top Growth Companies To Watch In Right Now: TrueBlue Inc.(TBI)

TrueBlue, Inc. provides temporary blue-collar staffing services in the United States. It supplies on demand general labor to various industries under the Labor Ready brand; skilled labor to manufacturing and logistics industries under the Spartan Staffing brand; and trades people for commercial, industrial, and residential construction, and building and plant maintenance industries under the CLP Resources brand. The company also provides mechanics and technicians to the aviation maintenance, repair and overhaul, aerospace manufacturing, and assembly industries, as well as to other transportation industries under the Plane Techs brand; and temporary drivers to the transportation and distribution industries under the Centerline brand. It primarily serves small and medium-size businesses. The company was formerly known as Labor Ready, Inc. and changed its name to TrueBlue, Inc. in December 2007. TrueBlue, Inc. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Tacoma, Washington.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By idahansen]

    The entire demand labor industry should do well as the US Department of Labor just reported that 169,000 more jobs were added to the American economy. The more work there is, the more demand there is for the services of staffing solutions firms such as Labor SMART, Paychex (NASDAQ: PAYX), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), and Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI).

  • [By Jonathan Yates]

    Even though the stock market rallied on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's remarks with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) and Standard & Poor's 500 Index (NYSE: SPY) surging, the long term winners will be stocks in the staffing industry such as Paychex(NASDAQ: PAYX), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Robert Half (NYSE: RHI), and Labor SMART (OTCBB: LTNC).

  • [By Travis Hoium]

    What: Shares of staffing agency TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI  ) jumped 10% today after the company reported earnings.

    So what: Revenue jumped 19%, to $422.3 million, and beat estimates of $420.2 million from Wall Street. Adjusted earnings per share were also up 19%, to $0.31, outpacing estimates by $0.05.�

Top 5 Value Companies For 2014: Nordstrom Inc.(JWN)

Nordstrom, Inc., a fashion specialty retailer, offers apparel, shoes, cosmetics, and accessories for women, men, and children in the United States. It offers a selection of brand name and private label merchandise. The company sells its products through various channels, including Nordstrom full-line stores, off-price Nordstrom Rack stores, Jeffrey? boutiques, treasure & bond, and Last Chance clearance stores; and its online store, nordstrom.com, as well as through catalog. Nordstrom also provides a private label card, two Nordstrom VISA credit cards, and a debit card for Nordstrom purchases. The company?s credit and debit cards feature a shopping-based loyalty program. As of September 30, 2011, it operated 222 stores, including 117 full-line stores, 101 Nordstrom Racks, 2 Jeffrey boutiques, 1 treasure & bond store, and 1 clearance store in 30 states. The company was founded in 1901 and is based in Seattle, Washington.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Adam Levine-Weinberg]

    While the e-commerce revolution is disrupting many traditional brick-and-mortar retailers, there are still some "physical" retailers that continue to show solid growth. Two particularly promising investment opportunities in this vein are Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN  ) and TJX (NYSE: TJX  ) . Both companies are well positioned within their sectors, and see the rise of e-commerce as an opportunity rather than a threat.

  • [By Robert Martin]

    Deutsche Bank�(DB) analysts, for example, expect the department store space overall to struggle this holiday season in the face of declining mall traffic and overall spending that is lackluster. That means they expect stronger stores like�Macy’s�(M)�and�Nordstrom�(JWN) to post even lower earnings, and flailing JCPenney to post an even wider loss.

Top Growth Companies To Watch In Right Now: Waste Management Inc.(WM)

Waste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides waste management services to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in North America. It offers collection, transfer, recycling, and disposal services. The company also owns, develops, and operates waste-to-energy and landfill gas-to-energy facilities in the United States. Its collection services involves in picking up and transporting waste and recyclable materials from where it was generated to a transfer station, material recovery facility, or disposal site; and recycling operations include collection and materials processing, plastics materials recycling, and commodities recycling. In addition, it provides recycling brokerage, which includes managing the marketing of recyclable materials for third parties; and electronic recycling services, such as collection, sorting, and disassembling of discarded computers, communications equipment, and other electronic equipment. Further, the company e ngages in renting and servicing portable restroom facilities to municipalities and commercial customers under the Port-o-Let name; and involves in landfill gas-to-energy operations comprising recovering and processing the methane gas produced naturally by landfills into a renewable energy source, as well as provides street and parking lot sweeping services. Additionally, it offers portable self-storage, fluorescent lamp recycling, and medical waste services for healthcare facilities, pharmacies, and individuals, as well as provides services on behalf of third parties to construct waste facilities. The company was formerly known as USA Waste Services, Inc. and changed its name to Waste Management, Inc. in 1998. Waste Management, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Selena Maranjian]

    It can be good, though, with kids, to add a few individual company stocks to the mix, to keep things more interesting. A solid, dividend-paying blue chip such as Waste Management (NYSE: WM  ) can be a smart choice, in part because it's relatively easy to understand. It's reliable because garbage collection is likely to be in great demand for a long time, and the company has become a major recycler, too, even generating energy from some waste.

  • [By Sean Williams]

    Today, I plan to introduce the first of 10 selections to the Basic Needs Portfolio: Waste Management (NYSE: WM  ) .

    How it fits in with our theme
    Waste Management fits the theme of the portfolio in actually more ways than one. Obviously, trash collection is a basic necessity that's needed regardless of whether the economy is booming or in a recession. The amount of trash we generate may fluctuate slightly based on the health of the economy, but hauling it away remains a basic need that creates consistent cash flow for Waste Management.

Top Growth Companies To Watch In Right Now: Sara Lee Corporation(SLE)

Sara Lee Corporation engages in the manufacture and marketing of a range of branded packaged meat, bakery, and beverage products worldwide. Its packaged meat products include hot dogs and corn dogs, breakfast sausages, sandwiches and bowls, smoked and dinner sausages, premium deli and luncheon meats, bacon, beef, turkey, and cooked ham. It also offers frozen baked products, which comprise frozen pies, cakes, cheesecakes, pastries, and other desserts. In addition, Sara Lee provides roast, ground, and liquid coffee; cappuccinos; lattes; and hot and iced teas, as well as refrigerated dough products. The company sells its products under Hillshire Farm, Ball Park, Jimmy Dean, Sara Lee, State Fair, Douwe Egberts, Senseo, Maison du Caf

Top Growth Companies To Watch In Right Now: Thoratec Corporation(THOR)

Thoratec Corporation engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of proprietary medical devices used for circulatory support. The company?s primary product lines include ventricular assist devices, such as HeartMate II, an implantable left ventricular assist device consisting of a rotary blood pump to provide intermediate and long-term mechanical circulatory support (MCS); and HeartMate XVE, an implantable and pulsatile left ventricular assist device for intermediate and longer-term MCS. Its ventricular assist devices also comprise Paracorporeal Ventricular Assist Device, an external pulsatile ventricular assist device, which provides left, right, and biventricular MCS approved for bridge-to-transplantation (BTT), including home discharge, and post-cardiotomy myocardial recovery; and Implantable Ventricular Assist Device, an implantable and pulsatile ventricular assist device designed to provide left, right, and biventricular MCS approved for BTT comprising hom e discharge, and post-cardiotomy myocardial recovery. The company also provides CentriMag, an extracorporeal full-flow acute surgical support platform that offers support up to 30 days for cardiac and respiratory failure. In addition, it offers PediMag and PediVAS extracorporeal full-flow acute surgical support platforms designed to provide acute surgical support to pediatric patients. The company sells its products through direct sales force in the United States, as well as through a network of distributors internationally. Thoratec Corporation was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Pleasanton, California.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Brian Pacampara]

    What: Shares of medical device company Thoratec (NASDAQ: THOR  ) sank 12% today after its quarterly results missed Wall Street expectations. �

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Why Did Netflix Jump 6% on Monday?

I'm a longtime fan of Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX  ) , both as a service and as a stock. In the long run, I expect Netflix shares to deliver multibagger returns, even from today's rising buy-in prices. But sometimes the stock's price jumps surprise me -- Netflix gained more than 6% on Monday, and reasonable catalysts were nowhere in sight.

The company wasn't entirely devoid of news. Netflix just signed an exclusive multiyear deal with News Corp  (NASDAQ: FOX  ) subsidiary 20th Century Fox Television, which brings hit comedy New Girl to U.S. customers with an unusually short delay. Season 1 is available today; upcoming seasons will run on Netflix as soon as the Fox run ends. Compare and contrast to the usual model, where Netflix has to wait until one year after the season finale.

The latest addition to Netflix's American content catalog, starring Zooey Deschanel and Jake Johnson. But mostly Zooey Deschanel. Image source: Fox press materials.

New Girl is an award-winning audience favorite, and anything that brings more of ultimate MPDG Zooey Deschanel to my living room is a good thing. But this is hardly a game changer, worth a 6% overnight premium on Netflix shares. In particular, I'd be more impressed if this deal covered global rights, but Netflix customers in South America and Europe are out of the loop this time.

In other news, analyst house Morgan Stanley upgraded Pandora Media (NYSE: P  ) to a buy. Why would that change Netflix shares in any way? Because Morgan Stanley explained its bullish view of Pandora by comparing it to Netflix in a very flattering light.

"We believe Pandora is establishing itself as the 'Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX  ) of Radio,'" said analyst Scott Devitt. That means being "a truly disruptive form of content consumption that offers investors the best pureplay exposure to the secular shift of broadcast radio dollars to online channels."

Kind words indeed. Pandora shares jumped as much as 10.2% on this upgrade. I suppose you could connect the dots and land at the conclusion that Morgan Stanley obviously loves Netflix just as much. Devitt's view of Netflix is due for an update, being unchanged since setting a $200 price target back in February.

But is that backhanded connection strong enough to boost Netflix shares by 6%? I think not.

Like I said, I believe that Netflix is undervalued from a long-term perspective. But there's no particular reason for Mr. Market to adjust his price tag on the stock this much right now. And you can't even chalk it up to some big-volume buy behind the scenes, as the trading volume was actually lower than recent averages.

Enjoy the ride, fellow Netflix owners. The big, truly investable news will come when Netflix reports second-quarter results in about three weeks. This Monday's sound and fury signifies nothing.

The television landscape is changing quickly, with new entrants like Netflix disrupting traditional networks. The Motley Fool's new free report "Who Will Own the Future of Television?" details the risks and opportunities in TV. Click here to read the full report!

Monday, October 21, 2013

In the Mobile Fight With Apple, Google Just Went for the Jugular

Google (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) and Motorola want Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) lunch money in mobile, Fool contributor Tim Beyers says in the following video.

How will they get it? A new tool that automatically migrates contact and calendar data from Apple's iPhone to a new Moto-X, presuming you bought a custom AT&T-compatible model online. Handsets built for Verizon networks aren't yet eligible.

Is this a serious threat? Not in the near term, Tim says, but it's a short distance from Google importing contacts and music to working on a tool for matching all iTunes purchases in Google Play. Imagine how much easier it would be to sell the Motorola brand -- or Android generally -- if prospective switchers had no fear of losing years of music, TV, and movie purchases to a new platform.

Do you agree? Do you trust Google and the Moto-X enough to switch from Apple? Please watch the video to get Tim's full take and then leave a comment to let us know where you stand.

Interested in the next tech revolution?
Then you'll need to learn about the radical technology shift some say forced the mighty Bill Gates into a premature retirement. Meanwhile, early in-the-know investors are already getting filthy rich off of it... by quietly investing in the three companies that control its fortune-making future. You've likely heard of one of them, but you're probably never heard of the other two... to find out what they are, click here to watch this shocking video presentation!

Sunday, October 20, 2013

Why Susser Holdings's Earnings May Not Be So Hot

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Susser Holdings (NYSE: SUSS  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, Susser Holdings burned $96.9 million cash while it booked net income of $47.0 million. That means it burned through all its revenue and more. That doesn't sound so great. FCF is less than net income. Ideally, we'd like to see the opposite.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

So how does the cash flow at Susser Holdings look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

With 29.2% of operating cash flow coming from questionable sources, Susser Holdings investors should take a closer look at the underlying numbers. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, other operating activities (which can include deferred income taxes, pension charges, and other one-off items) provided the biggest boost, at 26.2% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

Is Susser Holdings the right retailer for your portfolio? Learn how to maximize your investment income and "Secure Your Future With 9 Rock-Solid Dividend Stocks," including one above-average retailing powerhouse. Click here for instant access to this free report.

We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

Add Susser Holdings to My Watchlist.

Friday, October 18, 2013

Friday Closing Bell: Markets Take Lead from Tech Stocks

October 18, 2013: U.S. markets opened mixed Friday morning with little in the way of news or data to guide the indexes. The only real data out today came from China, where GDP growth in the third-quarter was reported up 7.8%. Solid earnings beats by several big names set the tone early and all three major indexes finished the day higher.

European closed higher today while Asian and Latin American markets were mixed.

Monday's calendar includes a speech by Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and the following scheduled data releases and events (all times Eastern).

8:30 a.m. – Chicago Fed national activity index 10:00 a.m. – Existing home sales 10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly petroleum status report (delayed from last Thursday) 11:30 a.m. – 3- and 6-month bill auctions

Hot Small Cap Companies To Invest In Right Now

Here are the closing bell levels for Friday:

S&P500 1744.50 (+11.35; +0.65%) DJIA 15399.65 (+28.00; +0.18%) NASDAQ 3914.28 (+51.13; +1.32%) 10YR TNOTE 2.594% (flat) Gold $1,314.60 (-8.40; -0.6%) closed the week up nearly 4% WTI Crude oil $100.81 (+0.14; +0.1%) closed the week down 1.2% Euro/Dollar: 1.3688 (+0.0012; +0.09%)

Big Earnings Movers: Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is up 13.8% at $1,011.65 after hammering estimates. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) is down 13.7% at $3.53. General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) is up 3.6% at $25.57 after beating estimates. Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is up 2.6% at $29.68. Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB) is up 2.8% at $93.95 on solid earnings. All these stocks, except AMD, posted new 52-week highs today; Google posted its all-time high.

Stocks on the Move: Voxeljet AG (NYSE: VJET) is up 121.8% at $28.83 after a blazing hot IPO. Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ARIA) is down 40.7% at $2.67 on a failed drug trial. ParkerVision Inc. (NASDAQ: PRKR) is up 17.9% at $6.40 after gaining more than 60% yesterday on a Florida jury's ruling in the company's favor in a patent suit against Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM). J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE: JCP) is down 4.8% at $7.00, after posting a 33-year low of $6.97 a share earlier today.

In all, 449 NYSE stocks put up new 52-week highs today, while only 19 stocks posted new lows.

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Top Oil Companies To Watch For 2014

Since 2008, BP (NYSE: BP  ) has been working on a multi-billion-dollar modernization project at its Whiting refinery in Indiana, the company's largest U.S. refinery. As the British oil giant moves closer to completing the last remaining upgrades at Whiting, let's take a closer look at what effect its start-up may have on North American benchmark crude oil prices.

New crude unit start-up at Whiting
On July 1, BP announced the start-up of a new 250,000-barrel-per-day crude distillation unit, which returned the Whiting refinery to its �nameplate processing capability of 413,000 barrels per day. In the second half of the year, BP said that it expects to install a new 105,00- barrel-per-day gasoil hydrotreater, a 102,000-barrel-per-day coker and other related units at the facility.

The Whiting modernization project is part of BP's efforts to revamp its U.S. downstream operations, which have so far included upgrades at refining facilities in Cherry Point, Wash., and Toledo, Ohio, as well as a sale of its Carson, Calif., refinery and other assets to Tesoro (NYSE: TSO  ) for $2.4 billion last month. From Tesoro's perspective, the transaction will help the company further integrate its West Coast refining, marketing, and logistics network.

Top Oil Companies To Watch For 2014: Halliburton Company(HAL)

Halliburton Company provides various products and services to the energy industry for the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas worldwide. It operates in two segments, Completion and Production, and Drilling and Evaluation. The Completion and Production segment offers production enhancement services, completion tools and services, cementing services, and Boots & Coots. Its production enhancement services include stimulation and sand control services; completion tools and services comprise subsurface safety valves and flow control equipment, surface safety systems, packers and specialty completion equipment, intelligent completion systems, expandable liner hanger systems, sand control systems, well servicing tools, and reservoir performance services; cementing services consist of bonding the well and well casing, while isolating fluid zones and maximizing wellbore stability, and casing equipment; and Boots & Coots include well intervention services , pressure control, equipment rental tools and services, and pipeline and process services. The Drilling and Evaluation segment provides field and reservoir modeling, drilling, evaluation, and wellbore placement solutions that enable customers to model, measure, and optimize their well construction activities. Its services comprise fluid services, drilling services, drill bits, wireline and perforating services, testing and subsea services, software and asset solutions, and integrated project management and consulting services. The company serves independent, integrated, and national oil companies. Halliburton Company was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Rich Duprey]

    Having repurchased 23 million shares, or $1 billion worth of company stock, in the second quarter, oil services giant Halliburton (NYSE: HAL  ) announced today it had approved an increase to $5 billion in its buyback program.

  • [By Arjun Sreekumar]

    The main reason for this has been the large-scale application of new technologies, such as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking," that have allowed producers to more easily coax oil and gas from dense rock formations. Though oilfield services firm Halliburton (NYSE: HAL  ) was the first company to use hydraulic fracturing commercially to recover oil and gas all the way back in 1949, the practice didn't become widespread until just about half a decade ago.

  • [By Isac Simon]

    The muscles behind the brains
    Who helps in developing these resources? This is where the technological expertise of oilfield-services companies is required. And the best among them are Halliburton (NYSE: HAL  ) and Cameron International (NYSE: CAM  ) . Halliburton's well-construction and drilling teams seem to have a definite edge over other players in the industry. The services extend from well-bore evaluation to well-completion methods. The entire gamut of services is on offer. Cameron's well-surface equipment, as well as services for high-pressure, high-fluid volume fracturing, flowback operations and well testing, are industry standards.

  • [By Arjun Sreekumar]

    For instance, though oilfield services firms Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB  ) and Halliburton (NYSE: HAL  ) have shown a keen interest in developing China's shale resources, the absence of clearly defined and enforceable patent and property protection laws has given them reason to pause. �

Top Oil Companies To Watch For 2014: Hi Crush Partners LP (HCLP)

Hi Crush Partners LP, formerly Hi-Crush Partners LP, is a domestic producer of monocrystalline sand, a specialized mineral that is used as a proppant to enhance the recovery rates of hydrocarbons from oil and natural gas wells. The Company reserves consist of Northern White sand, a resource existing in Wisconsin and limited portions of the upper Midwest region of the United States. It owns, operates and develops sand reserves and related excavation and processing facilities and will seek to acquire or develop additional facilities. The Company's 561-acre facility with integrated rail infrastructure, located near Wyeville, Wisconsin, enables it to process and deliver approximately 1,600,000 tons of frac sand per year. In June 2013, Hi Crush Partners LP announced the completion of its acquisition of D&I Silica, LLC (D&I).

The Company�� frac sand production is sold to investment grade-rated pressure pumping service providers under long-term, contracts that require its customers to pay a specified price for a specified volume of frac sand each month. The Company owns and operates the Wyeville facility, which is located in Monroe County, Wisconsin and, as of December 31, 2011, contained 48.4 million tons of proven recoverable sand reserves of mesh sizes it has contracted to sell. From the Wyeville in-service date to March 31, 2012, it had processed and sold 555,250 tons of frac sand.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Rick Munarriz]

    Tuesday
    Hi-Crush Partners (NYSE: HCLP  ) checks in on Tuesday. This is another high-yielding limited partnership that went public last year. Hi-Crush is a producer of monocrystalline sand that's primarily used in the fracking process.

Hot Casino Stocks To Watch Right Now: Genesis Energy LP (GEL)

Genesis Energy, L.P. (Genesis) is a limited partnership focused on the midstream segment of the oil and gas industry in the Gulf Coast region of the United States, primarily Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida and in the Gulf of Mexico. The Company has a portfolio of customers, operations and assets, including pipelines, refinery-related plants, storage tanks and terminals, barges and trucks. Genesis provides an integrated range of services to refineries, oil, natural gas and carbon dioxide (CO2) producers, industrial and commercial enterprises that use sodium hydrosulfide (NaHS) and caustic soda, and businesses that use CO2 and other industrial gases. The Company operates in three segments: Pipeline Transportation, Refinery Services, and Supply and Logistics. In August 2011, the Company acquired black oil barge transportation business of Florida Marine Transporters, Inc. In November 2011, it acquired a 90% interest in a 3,500 barrel per day refinery located in Converse County, Wyoming, including 300 miles of abandoned 3- 6 pipeline. On January 3, 2012, it acquired interests in several Gulf of Mexico crude oil pipeline systems, including its 28% interest in the Poseidon pipeline system, its 29% interest in the Odyssey pipeline system, and its 23% interest in the Eugene Island pipeline system. In August 2013, the Company announced that it has completed the acquisition of all the assets of the downstream transportation business of Hornbeck Offshore Transportation, LLC (Hornbeck).

Pipeline Transportation

The Company transports crude oil and carbon dioxide (CO2) for others for a fee in the Gulf Coast region of the United States through approximately 550 miles of pipeline. Its Pipeline Transportation segment owns and operates three crude oil common carrier pipelines and two CO2 pipelines. Its 235-mile Mississippi System provides shippers of crude oil in Mississippi indirect access to refineries, pipelines, storage terminals and other crude oil infrastructure ! located in the Midwest. Its 100-mile Jay System originates in southern Alabama and the panhandle of Florida and provides crude oil shippers access to refineries, pipelines and storage near Mobile, Alabama. The Company�� 90-mile Texas System transports crude oil from West Columbia to several delivery points near Houston. Its crude oil pipeline systems include access to a total of approximately 0.7 million barrels of crude oil storage.

The Company�� Free State Pipeline is an 86-mile, 20 CO2 pipelines that extends from CO2 source fields near Jackson, Mississippi, to oil fields in eastern Mississippi. It has a twenty-year transportation services agreement (through 2028) related to the transportation of CO2 on its Free State Pipeline.

Refinery Services

Genesis provides services to eight refining operations located in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas, which operates storage and transportation assets in relation to its business and sell NaHS and caustic soda to industrial and commercial companies. The refinery services involve processing refiner�� sulfur (sour) gas streams to remove the sulfur. The refinery services also include terminals and it utilizes railcars, ships, barges and trucks to transport product. Its contracts are long-term in nature and have an average remaining term of four years.

Supply and Logistics

The Company provides services to Gulf Coast oil and gas producers and refineries through a combination of purchasing, transporting, storing, blending and marketing of crude oil and refined products, primarily fuel oil. It has access to a range of more than 250 trucks, 350 trailers and 50 barges with 1.5 million barrels of terminal storage capacity in multiple locations along the Gulf Coast, as well as capacity associated with its three common carrier crude oil pipelines.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Seth Jayson]

    Genesis Energy (NYSE: GEL  ) is expected to report Q2 earnings around July 9. Here's what Wall Street wants to see:

    The 10-second takeaway
    Comparing the upcoming quarter to the prior-year quarter, average analyst estimates predict Genesis Energy's revenues will grow 30.3% and EPS will grow 52.2%.

  • [By Marc Bastow]

    Midstream oil and gas MLP Genesis Energy (GEL) raised its quarterly distribution 2.5% to 52.25 cents per share, payable Nov. 14 to unitholders of record as of Nov. 1.
    GEL Dividend Yield: 4.25%

Top Oil Companies To Watch For 2014: ConocoPhillips(COP)

ConocoPhillips operates as an integrated energy company worldwide. The company?s Exploration and Production (E&P) segment explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas, and natural gas liquids. Its Midstream segment gathers, processes, and markets natural gas; and fractionates and markets natural gas liquids in the United States and Trinidad. The company?s Refining and Marketing (R&M) segment purchases, refines, markets, and transports crude oil and petroleum products, such as gasolines, distillates, and aviation fuels. Its Chemicals segment manufactures and markets petrochemicals and plastics. This segment offers olefins and polyolefins, including ethylene, propylene, and other olefin products; aromatics products, such as benzene, styrene, paraxylene, and cyclohexane, as well as polystyrene and styrene-butadiene copolymers; and various specialty chemical products comprising organosulfur chemicals, solvents, catalyst s, drilling chemicals, mining chemicals, and engineering plastics and compounds. The company?s Emerging Businesses segment develops new technologies and businesses. It focuses on power generation; and technologies related to conventional and nonconventional hydrocarbon recovery, refining, alternative energy, biofuels, and the environment. This segment also offers E-Gas, a gasification technology producing high-value synthetic gas. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Arjun Sreekumar]

    Similarly, ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP  ) recently said it is suspending plans to drill in Alaskan waters in 2014 because of regulatory, permitting, and other uncertainties, while Statoil (NYSE: STO  ) announced last year that it will postpone drilling in the American Arctic until 2015. To be sure, these companies have good reasons to be hesitant in their Arctic ambitions.

  • [By Tyler Crowe]

    Also, to comound these problems, there isn't a clear leader of the project that can steer its investment deicisions. ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM  ) , Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS-A  ) , Eni (NYSE: E  ) , Total (NYSE: TOT  ) , and Kazakh national oil company KazMunaiGas each have a�16.81% working interest in the project. This has led to problems involving investment decisions and project mangement.�Both�ExxonMobil�and�Royal Dutch Shell�have been extremely�disappointed�with the results, to the point that they have threatened to pull out of the project altogether on a couple of occasions, and�ConocoPhillips� (NYSE: COP  ) did get out this year by selling its $5 billion stake in the project to China National Petroleum.

  • [By Tyler Crowe]

    The large uptick in domestic production will have some major implications on natural gas markets. With ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP  ) just receiving approval for LNG exports to countries not in free trade agreements with the U.S. at its Freeport facility, and Cheniere Energy's (NYSEMKT: LNG  ) facility due to come on line in 2015, the U.S. natural gas market will have something it doesn't have right now: an outlet for excess supply. U.S. LNG exports, plus all the Canadian gas we are using today, could be an opportunity for European countries to diversify its natural gas sources and in turn reduce the risk of repeating an incident like the U.K. suffered back in March.

  • [By Arjun Sreekumar]

    Exxon's net income margin, however, fell only modestly, coming in at 10.9% last year, as compared with 10.5% in 2005. And ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP  ) was one of the few majors that managed to buck the weak margin trend, posting an impressive 14% net income margin last year, up from 8.2% in 2005.

Top Oil Companies To Watch For 2014: Whiting Petroleum Corporation(WLL)

Whiting Petroleum Corporation engages in the acquisition, development, exploitation, exploration, and production of oil and gas primarily in the Permian Basin, Rocky Mountains, Mid-Continent, Gulf Coast, and Michigan regions of the United States. As of December 31, 2010, its estimated proved reserves were 304.9 million barrels equivalent of oil; and had interests in 9,698 gross productive wells covering approximately 1,115,000 gross developed acres. The company sells its oil and gas to end users, marketers, and other purchasers. Whiting Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1983 and is Denver, Colorado.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Matt DiLallo]

    Kodiak has been growing its production very significantly over the past few years. Just last December it was ranked tenth in total Bakken production at 20,423 barrels of oil per day. At the time, the company was producing less than a third of the oil that the top producers in the play where producing. That month Whiting Petroleum (NYSE: WLL  ) topped production at 65,156 barrels of oil per day while Continental was second at 65,141 and Hess (NYSE: HES  ) was third at 64,657 barrels of oil per day. While this deal won't leapfrog it to the top, when combined with its organic growth it's helping to turn Kodiak into a significant Bakken producer.

Top Oil Companies To Watch For 2014: Archer Ltd (ARCHER)

Archer Ltd, formerly Seawell Limited is a Bermuda-based global oilfield service company. The Company provides drilling services, such as platform drilling, land drilling, modular rings, directional drilling, drill bits, tubular services, drilling and completion fluids, cementing tools, plugs and packers, underbalanced services, rentals and engineering. It specialises also in well services, such as wireline intervention, specialist intervention, frac valves, wireline logging, integrity diagnostics, imaging, production monitoring, coiled tubing, completion services and fishing. As of January 3, 2012, the Company's organizational structure centered on four geographic and strategic areas: North America (NAM), North Sea (NRS), Latin America (LAM) and Emerging Markets & Technologies (EMT). As of December 31, 2010, it was active through a number of subsidiaries, namely Seawell, Allis-Chalmers Energy, Gray Wireline, Rig Inspection Services and TecWel, among others.

Top Oil Companies To Watch For 2014: Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.(RCL)

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. operates in the cruise vacation industry worldwide. It owns five cruise brands, which comprise Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, Pullmantur, Azamara Club Cruises, and CDF Croisi�es de France. The Royal Caribbean International brand provides various itineraries and cruise lengths with options for onboard dining, entertainment, and other onboard activities primarily for the contemporary segment. It offers surf simulators, water parks, ice skating rinks, rock climbing walls, and shore excursions at each port of call, as well as boulevards with shopping, dining, and entertainment venues. The Celebrity Cruises brand operates onboard upscale ships that offer luxurious accommodations, fine dining, personalized services, spa facilities, venue featuring live grass, and glass blowing studio for the premium segment, as well as resells computers and other media devices. The Pullmantur brand provides an array of onboard activities and serv ices to guests, including exercise facilities, swimming pools, beauty salons, gaming facilities, shopping, dining, complimentary beverages, and entertainment venues serving the contemporary segment of the Spanish, Portuguese, and Latin American cruise markets. The Azamara Club Cruises brand offers various onboard services, amenities, gaming facilities, fine dining, spa and wellness, butler service for suites, and interactive entertainment venues for the up-market segment of the North American, United Kingdom, German, and Australian markets. The CDF Croisieres de France brand offers seasonal itineraries to the Mediterranean; and various onboard services, amenities, entertainment venues, exercise and spa facilities, fine dining, and gaming facilities for the contemporary segment of the French cruise market. As of December 31, 2011, the company operated 39 ships with a total capacity of approximately 92,650 berths. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. was founded in 1968 and is headqua rtered in Miami, Florida.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Jon C. Ogg]

    Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE: RCL) was maintained Buy and its target was raised by $2 to $46 at Argus.

    Vodafone Group PLC (NASDAQ: VOD) was started with an Outperform rating by Raymond James.

  • [By Christopher Palmeri]

    Norwegian Cruise Line, the third-largest U.S. cruise operator after Carnival Corp. and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL), has advanced 57 percent since the sale of 27.1 million shares at $19 each in the IPO, giving it a market value of $6.07 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The stock fell 1.7 percent to $29.76 at the close in New York yesterday.

Top Oil Companies To Watch For 2014: Occidental Petroleum Corporation(OXY)

Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and gas exploration and production company primarily in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Oil and Gas; Chemical; and Midstream, Marketing, and Other. The Oil and Gas segment explores for, develops, produces, and markets crude oil, natural gas liquids, and condensate and natural gas. Its domestic oil and gas operations are located in Texas, New Mexico, California, Kansas, Oklahoma, Utah, Colorado, North Dakota, and West Virginia; and international oil and gas operations are located in Bahrain, Bolivia, Colombia, Iraq, Libya, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. As of December 31, 2010, this segment had proved reserves of approximately 3,363 million barrels of oil equivalent. The Chemical segment manufactures and markets basic chemicals, including chlorine, caustic soda, chlorinated organics, potassium chemicals, and ethylene dichloride products; vinyls, such as vinyl chloride monomer and polyvinyl chloride; and other chemicals comprising chlorinated isocyanurates, resorcinol, sodium silicates, and calcium chloride products. The Midstream, Marketing, and Other segment gathers, treats, processes, transports, stores, purchases, and markets crude oil that includes natural gas liquids and condensate, as well as natural gas and carbon dioxide. This segment also involves in the power generation; and trades around its assets comprising pipelines and storage capacity, as well as oil and gas, other commodities, and commodity-related securities. Occidental Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1920 and is based in Los Angeles, California.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Jon C. Ogg]

    Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) was raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo.

    Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: PTEN) was reinstated as Buy with a $27 price target at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

  • [By Michael Flannelly]

    Early on Monday, analysts at Deutsche Bank lowered their price target on Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) to reflect a lower-than-expected valuation of an asset that the oil and gas exploration company is trying to sell.

    Though the analysts lowered OXY’s price target from $114 to $109, they still maintain a “Buy” rating on the stock. The new price target suggests a 22% upside to the stock’s Friday closing price of $89.49.

    Deutsche Bank analyst Paul Sankey said, “Bloomberg Finance LP reports that Oxy is seeking sale of 40% of Mideast operations for around $8bn, which would imply $20bn total value for the unit. However reportedly some suitors are valuing the asset at around $15bn. This is a relatively negative valuation against our previous view that Oxy would be seeking $25+bn for its MENA business. We are cutting our price target to $109/share to reflect this lower implied valuation.”

    Occidental Petroleum shares were up 96 cents, or 1.07%, during pre-market trading on Monday. The stock is up 16.81% year-to-date.

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Will Comcast Benefit from a Possible Addition?

With shares of Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) trading around $46, is CMCSA an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Comcast is a provider of entertainment, information, and communications products and services. The company operates in five segments: cable communications, cable networks, broadcast television, filmed entertainment, and theme parks. Comcast offers television, video, high-speed Internet, and voice services to residential and business customers. It also operates NBC and Telemundo broadcast networks; provides filmed entertainment under the Universal Pictures, Focus Features, and Illumination names; and operates theme parks, studios, and a dining, retail, and entertainment complex.

Comcast and Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC), among others, are reportedly in negations with Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) to provide its service as a part of pay-TV packages and allow pay-TV providers to include Netflix as an app on their set-top boxes. According to people familiar with the matter who spoke to the Wall Street Journal, talks are in early stages and could still break down. Netflix cut a similar deal with the U.K.'s Virgin Media recently, but pay-TV and Netflix are still enemies in many ways, although they are apparently willing to explore partnerships.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

Comcast stock has been surging higher over the last several years. The stock is currently trading near highs for the year and looks set to continue. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Comcast is trading above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

CMCSA

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Comcast options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Comcast Options

25.95%

83%

81%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

October Options

Flat

Average

November Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Comcast’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Comcast look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

5 Best Gold Stocks To Invest In Right Now

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

30.00%

20.00%

20.09%

136.40%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

6.96%

2.90%

5.95%

15.38%

Earnings Reaction

5.54%

1.35%

0.85%

3.30%

Comcast has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been pleased with Comcast’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Comcast stock done relative to its peers, Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC), DirecTV (NASDAQ:DTV), Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH), and sector?

Comcast

Time Warner Cable

DirecTV

Dish Network

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

24.28%

18.73%

21.31%

31.02%

22.53%

Comcast has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Comcast provides communications and entertainment products and services to consumers and companies. Netflix is reportedly in talks with Comcast, among other pay-TV providers, to bring its services to the cable TV giant. The stock has been surging higher in recent years and is currently trading near all time high prices. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenues have been increasing which has left investors pleased about recent earnings announcements. Relative to its peers and sector, Comcast has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for Comcast to OUTPERFORM.

Monday, October 14, 2013

ON THE MARKET - More technical worries surface -- 10-14-2013

Pre-market – Monday 10-14-2013

"The most important single central fact about a free market is that no exchange takes place unless both parties benefit."

~ Milton Friedman ~

Dr. John L. Faessel

ON THE MARKET

Commentary and Insights

Quotes of the day

"No pecuniary consideration is more urgent, than the regular redemption and discharge of the public debt."

~ George Washington ~

Stocks boom on declining and below average volume

Up trend remains intact

ALERT:

1.A divergence in New Highs vs. Price in indexes suggests significant internal weakness. Link here.

2.McClellan Summation Index also suggests that there is not sufficient liquidity in the market to continue the uptrend. Link here for the details.

3.The 50-day moving average in the S&P 500 (SPX) has turned down.

MARKET

The Market / S&P 500 price advances again above the 50-day moving average.

The McClellan Oscillator is in Neutral at a plus 37. Tuesday's McClellan Oscillator was into the oversold at a minus 193. The weekly picture puts in a solid 'end of trend' Hammer candle. Key channel support off the trendline from November 2012 at (SPX) 1667 violated but the advance keeps "price" trendbound.

Today another down day looms as the Obama administration / House Republican Senate Democrat 'shutdown' debt / spending impasse grinds on. In three days the government's borrowing authority lapses.

However stock market indexes remain in strong uptrends and continue to look constructive, but there are some technical underpinnings that are deteriorating. Add that top line revenue has turned down as havw earnings.

Also very important - the important Bank Index (BKX) "price' remains below the now declining 50-day moving average and has the look of a failing chart.

After "price" in the S&P 500 (SPX) slid in a 16 session retreat off the channel top trendline from the March 2009 lows, (while coincidentally on that high tick day on 9/18/2013 the McClellan Oscillator posted the highest read in the last 12-months at an OVERBOUGHT plus 268) we has a nice 3-day reversal off a hammer candle when on Wednesday the McClellan posted a minus and oversold 193 on an increase in volume that was above average. On Friday volume fell sharply on both major exchanges. Nasdaq, trading was the slowest in almost three weeks. Weekly volume also remains in decline and below average.

It's all about jobs

Unemployment numbers rose 21% last week to 374,000, up 66,000 from 308,000 the previous week. And the markets love the fact that the $85 billion monthly mortgage and bond securities buying will continue. So much for the tapering….

Weekly S&P 500

The S&P 500 (SPX) closed Friday at 1703.20 - the prior Friday it was 1690.50

The 50-day moving average support is in decline at 1678 - the prior Friday it was 1679

Short term 'Price' support is at 1692. Then at 1682

The a bit further out 1646 and 1627

The 200-day moving average support is at 1602

Channel and trend line support of (November 2012) is at 1667

Then deep channel and trend line support of (October 2011) is at 1573.

Then the deepest channel and trend line support of (March 2009) is at 1375

Reality re Debt Limit - WSJ

"According to the Congressional Research Service, Congress voted 53 times from 1978 to 2013 to change the debt ceiling. The debt ceiling has increased to about $16 trillion from $752 billion. Of these 53 votes, 29 occurred in a Congress run by Democrats, 17 in a split Congress, and seven in a Republican-controlled Congress." "While large increases that give the U.S. Treasury a healthy amount of borrowing space happen occasionally, small short-term increases are common. In 1990 alone, while Republican George H.W. Bush was in the White House, a Democratic-controlled Congress voted to increase the debt limit seven times." "Republicans today are playing a role that has been played many times. While the debt-limit kabuki inevitably roils markets as deadlines approach, the alternative absence of fiscal discipline would make government insolvency more probable in the fullness of time." Link here for WSJ article.

This Week's Investor Sentiment

In general the Bullishness / Bearishness complex overview is in the high end of a mid-range

(High BULLISH readings in the Investor Sentiment Readings usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.)

The American Association of Individual Investors [AAII] Investor Survey of BEARISHNESS moved up to 33.6% from 30.1% the prior week. 13-weeks ago it posted its lowest read since 1/12/2012 when it slipped to 18.3%. Cycle highs of Bearishness of 54.5% were posted 13 weeks ago. Long-Term Average: Bearish: 30.5%

The American Association of Individual Investors [AAII]Investor Sentiment Survey of BULLISHNESS slid to 41% from 33.8% the prior week.

The "Bullish" survey posted recent highs of 52.3% 8-months ago. It posted cycle lows of 22.2% on 7/23/2012 the lowest percentile since August 2010. Long-Term Average: Bullish: 39.0%

Consensus Index BULLISH is 41% up from last week's 37%. New Cycle highs in Bullishness of 77% were posted 4-months ago matching the top tick of 77% on 10/11/2007.

The Market Vane (Market Letter Survey) slid a bit to 57% from 61% the prior week. In October 2007 it topped at 70% bullish.

The Citigroup "Panic / Euphoria" Model remains in neutral 0.25. Cycle Highs (and Euphoria zone) of plus 0.49 occurred in February and that posting was the highest since May 2008. At the end of June, 2011 it ticked cycle lows of minus0.31 in the Panic mode.

The BARRON's Confidence Index is 73.6.Last week it was 72.9 - One-year ago it was 67.1.

The Confidence Index is the premier measure of how the bond markets trillions (total global is around $93 trillion and USA is about 39% of that) are allocated: (The bond market is twice the size of the stock market.) The Index is the High-grade bond index divided by intermediate-grade index. A decline in latter vs. former - generally indicates rising confidence, pointing to higher stocks.

Friday's key indicators and metrics:

Cycle highs or lows are in red

·McClellan Oscillator in Neutral at plus 37

·3-month $ LIBOR hangs at new lows of 0.24885%

·CBOE Put / Call Volume Ratio – 0.95

·VIX – 15.72 - the cycle high was on June 20th at 21.32

·Aussie Dollar –0.9430

·Natural Gas (Globex) – 3.776

·Copper – 3.2690

·Gold (COMEX) – 1268.2

·Crude oil (NYMEX) 102.02– cycle and 2-year highs at 110.53 were ticked in August

·Brent crude 110.47

·The Treasury 10-year yield – 2.68% - cycle high was on 9/10/2013 at 2.98%

·The 30-year Treasury – 3.73% - cycle high was on August 22nd at 3.93%

·Canadian Dollar – 0.9654

·US Dollar Index – 80.45 – 8-month lows were ticked a week ago Thursday at 79.72

·Silver (COMEX) – 23.891

·Japanese Yen – 1.0157

·Swiss Franc – 1.0979

·Euro – 1.3557

·Platinum 1375.6

·Palladium 713.30

·Lumber (CME) – 331.20

.

Sunday, October 13, 2013

Why Angie's List Is Poised to Pull Back

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, local services review site Angie's List (NASDAQ: ANGI  ) has received the dreaded one-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Angie's List and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Angie's List facts

Headquarters (founded)

Indianapolis (1995)

Market Cap

$1.5 billion

Industry

Internet software and services

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$176.9 million

Management

Co-Founder/CEO William Oesterle

Co-Founder/Chief Marketing Officer Angela Bowman

Trailing-12-Month Return on Capital

(89.3%)

Cash/Debt

$62.9 million / $14.9 million

Competitors

Yelp

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 92% of the 318 members who have rated Angie's List believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward.

Just last week, one of those Fools, codyk500, summed up the bear case for our community:

I actually like this company, but I struggle to justify the valuation. Hard to call when the valuation will cave, but as long as there is positive momentum this should rise. The two catalysts to push it down are an earnings call that shows acceleration slowing. Second is a hiccup in the housing market.

My look on valuation:
Enterprise value: $1.1B
Members: 2M
Value per member (current): $559

Reported market penetration: 6.6%
Market penetration in Indianapolis market (most mature, 10+ years): 20%
Potential total market size: 3x what it currently is

Total member potential: 6.1M
EV / total member potential: $184 per member

Revenue per member in mature markets (pre 2003): $156
Revenue per member in mature markets net of marketing: $114

So if we assume they achieve full market penetration and are able to match their mature market revenue per member, this business still trades at 1.2x that revenue per member and 1.6x revenue net of marketing per member. That just seems a little like a stretch.

While you can certainly make quick gains in speculative tech stocks, the best investing approach is to choose great companies and stick with them for the long term. The Motley Fool's free report, "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich," names stocks that could help you build long-term wealth and retire well, along with some winning wealth-building strategies that every investor should be aware of. Click here now to keep reading.

Saturday, October 12, 2013

SEC’s White: Fiduciary Rule Remains ‘Major Focus’

Securities and Exchange Commission Chairwoman Mary Jo White said Wednesday that developing a fiduciary duty rule for brokers remains a “major focus of our efforts.”

After her remarks at the Securities Enforcement Forum in Washington, White told reporters that while she couldn’t predict “time-wise when we reach it [a rule proposal], it’s very important to work on and resolve where we are going on it.”

In hopes of pushing the SEC’s fiduciary rulemaking along, a subcommittee of the agency’s Investor Advisory Committee has drafted a proposal that would put brokers under fiduciary standards that advisors adhere to.

Under the draft proposal, the subcommittee says that a fiduciary duty for investment advice should include, “first and foremost, an enforceable, principles-based obligation to act in the best interest of the customer.”

In approaching this issue, the subcommittee says that the SEC’s goal “should be to eliminate the regulatory gap that allows broker-dealers to offer investment advice without being subject to the same fiduciary duty as other investment advisors but not to eliminate the ability of broker-dealers to offer transaction-specific advice compensated through transaction-based payments.”

Barbara Roper, director of consumer protection for the Consumer Federation of America, who chairs the SEC’s Investor as Purchaser Subcommittee that issued the proposal, told ThinkAdvisor that the subcommittee’s hope was that “by weighing in early in the [fiduciary rulemaking] process, we can help to shape the form that commission rulemaking takes.”

Top 10 Safest Stocks To Own For 2014

In reaction to White's comments on Wednesday, Roper told ThinkAdvisor that the subcommittee "recognizes that the Commission has a very full agenda of mandated rules under both Dodd-Frank and the JOBS Act, so discretionary rules have to fight for their share of a very limited bandwidth."

That said, however, the subcommittee has "long maintained that raising the standard of care for investment advice by brokers is among the most important steps the Commission can take to protect the interests of average, unsophisticated investors."

The subcommittee "appreciates that Chair White views this issue as a priority and hope that the Commission can move forward with a strong, pro-investor rule in the not too distant future," Roper added. 

The subcommittee’s proposal was scheduled to come up for a vote at the Investor Advisor Committee’s Thursday meeting, but that has been postponed because of the government shutdown. Roper said that "assuming that [the proposal] is eventually adopted by the full committee, perhaps our recommendation can help to provide further support for Commission action."

Roper said a date for a meeting of the full committee remains uncertain.

---

Check out Matrix Warns: Brush Up on IRA Business Models Ahead of Fiduciary Rule on ThinkAdvisor.